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Tool library / Book 3

Chapter 2

Future Scenario Map

Draw several plausible ways a situation could unfold instead of planning around one favorable outcome. Each branch holds its own opportunities, difficulties and unknowns. The book uses scenarios as preparation for learning and adaptation, not as predictions that turn into facts because they look convincing on paper.

Try the tool

When to use it

Use it before a project, habit change or shared plan when attendance, resources, rules or other people’s choices could change the result.

How to use it

  1. Write the specific goal in the center. Keep its boundary small enough to investigate: a particular display or routine is more useful than an attempt to predict an entire school year.

  2. List influences on that goal. Include time, available people, materials, permission, changing rules and conditions of use. Distinguish things you can choose from circumstances you can only prepare for.

  3. Draw at least two meaningfully different paths. Change an influence in each: fewer helpers, more visitors or a rule that changes. Name the paths so you can discuss them without ranking people.

  4. Follow each path far enough to describe a reasonable benefit and a reasonable difficulty. Identify who is affected. Label unsupported links as questions rather than describing an imagined consequence as certain.

  5. Compare the branches for actions useful in more than one future. Identify the question whose answer would most improve the plan, and decide how to check it with suitable permission.

  6. Give the map a return date or trigger. When reality changes, update the branch and record what changed your understanding. A scenario identified on paper still needs testing where testing is practical.

A worked example

A practical illustration of the method.

A group plans a tabletop demonstration. One branch has visitors arriving individually; another has several arriving together; a third has a helper absent. Clear directions help in every branch, while the crowded branch raises a new question about blocked labels. The group arranges a small supervised trial with several willing visitors. The map has helped select a test; it has not proved the crowded version will succeed.

Use it thoughtfully

Do not label the favored branch “what will happen” or confuse plausibility with a measured probability.

Avoid merely drawing the same outcome in three decorative styles. Change a meaningful influence.

Do not treat identifying a possible problem as completing the work of checking it.

From the book

A drawing of several realistic ways a situation could develop, with possible benefits, difficulties, and unanswered questions along each path.

Living a Higher Purpose · Chapter 2: The Future Scenario Map, manuscript line 246
Excerpt from the author’s current manuscript; page numbers vary by edition. The practical instructions on this page are companion guidance, not additional quoted text.

Related chapters in this book: 2, 5, 8.

An educational reflection or planning practice presented by the book. Its values guide choices; this page does not claim the method is a validated assessment, treatment, or guarantee of results.

Put it into practice

Your next step

Use these prompts for a real situation or a made-up example. Younger readers can work with a trusted adult.

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Keep exploring

Idea Spark Journal →“What If” Brainstorm →Prototype Playbook →